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Looking back at the end of 2008: iron and steel industry......
| Time：[2008-12-9] Read[201] | Chinese iron and steel industry in 2008 could be described as "one succeeds wing, a loss will also be ruined." Sui Wei end of the year, look back in the early years old at that time, numerous warnings, and other high-cost risk. Only about one month intervals, let steel has gone through the "summer" and "winter." In steel prices continue to hit an all-time high, has fallen to 1994 levels.
Today, most Chinese steel companies need to do is: conscientiously sum up experiences and lessons of the case before winter to spring.
"Paper" wealth is backed by the concentration of risk
Chinese iron and steel industry overcapacity, which at least three years ago had shown. Later in the global economy because of the delayed adjustment period, China's steel products to all of a sudden all of a sudden a comprehensive "net exports", the excess capacity to cover up the contradictions.
Baoshan Iron and Steel Group, responsible for the relevant people in the beginning of this year when a heavy heart, told reporters that the steel has entered a "high-cost, high steel prices," the times, "paper" wealth is behind the rapid accumulation of risks.
However, no one wants to do, "Feast" Terminator, including steel and the upper reaches of the mine operators. Like "My iron and steel" information agency researchers Jialiang, and other industry groups say, we all know that the world was not to leave the "feast", but no one knows when the end of the feast, so do not want to have the first "rose ".
This year's global iron ore price negotiations, that is, in this "strange psychological" effect under the very "alienation" of the situation. The three major global mining giants are an extreme hard-line attitude that they can think of all the "additional requirements", in possession of a huge price increase on the basis of, also called "quality difference," "sea freight price difference," the basic prices of a unified Europe and Asia Some even have to break the traditional annual benchmark pricing mechanism. Such acts give people an impression that the market situation would be mutant come at any time, the mining giant is to seize the last chance "to win market initiative." But the problem is that when the arrival of the mutation of the market, no one can say is not clear.
In this case, the high price of commodities is expected to run on the continuation of most of the original steel high fuel stocks also continue to maintain high prices of raw materials to the lower reaches of the full cost of the transfer of steel to "inertia" to push High high.
According to the China Iron and Steel Industry Association, the authority of the data, in the first half of this year, domestic steel prices rose month by month, a record high. 6 to the end of the domestic steel price index over the same period last year rose more than 45%.
How demand for all of a sudden disappeared
In steel prices hit historic peak of more than a month after the domestic steel market, all of a sudden "high platform diving." In the recent "My network of steel" at the annual meeting, the chairman of the Nanjing Iron and Steel United Co., Ltd., said Yang Siming, a sudden reversal of this market, just before and after more than 1 month, "It's never experienced."
China Iron and Steel Association Deputy Secretary-General Qi Xiangdong, also of the view that in September this year, domestic steel production has not occurred in recent years, the rapid decline, the highest and lowest per month per month compared to 14,800,000 tons per month reduction. This reduction, "is one of the world iron and steel production had not been in the history of the phenomenon." Steel is responsible for more than one reflect, "as if market demand suddenly disappeared overnight."
State Council Development Research Center of the Institute of Finance at the Ba Shusong, deputy director of the "My network of steel" at the annual meeting of the view that the "sudden disappearance of demand" is in fact the previous inflation expectations brought about by the economic chain of high-Stock Created by. Steel stocks increased by the amount of ore, steel industry downstream steel products also increased inventory levels. Once the economic slowdown, related industries in the first link in the chain reaction is "digesting inventory", which makes the "immediate needs" suddenly disappeared, making all of a sudden imbalance between supply and demand amplification, the resulting panic in the market, further exacerbated by market turmoil .
According to China Steel's price monitoring, to the end of November, domestic steel price index, as well as long products, sheet metal index were down in April 1994 price level. In the shrinking market demand, also appeared in "the loss of three": the loss of market confidence; circulation and end-users of the "reservoir" loss of function; manufacturers to develop a sales price of the "base price" loss.
Ba said that only the completion of the inventory digestion, promote the growth of the country's macro-policies took place after the actual effects, including iron and steel industry, the domestic industry before we come out of "the most difficult time."
Does not mitigate the fundamental contradiction
In the aftermath of the ups and downs, to reflect on the industry are: Why do we feel knowing that "such a high price unusual, non-stretched string can not be broken," but is "unable to stop hand, with forward inertia", the final loss will also be ruined?
Chinese iron and steel industry has long reached a basic "consensus" and to the national industrial policy to promote ways: First, growth in total iron and steel industry is no longer the principal contradiction in the future to strictly control the excessive growth of new capacity; II Iron and steel industry is to meet the domestic demand-oriented, not to become a leading international steel exporters as the goal; The third is to raise industrial concentration and accelerating the consolidation and reorganization of enterprises.
But the conflict over the past few years has not been fundamentally eased, iron and steel production to 7 years in a row about 20% of high-speed growth of the country in June this year, Nissan 1,564,800 tons of steel to create the all-time high; years of net exports of steel situation To cover up the contradictions of excess capacity; steel prices and reorganization slow progress, the degree of concentration of industries at one time did not fall but rise. All this makes the upper reaches of mining and iron and steel industry supply and demand tensions, the spot of mine irrational "virtual up" a direct impact on the long-term agreement to mine the market, long-term interests of the game gradually given way to short-term.
Some experts reflected in the market, "inertia" and against the backdrop of excessive competition, even some of the product structural adjustment measures, there have been "Bianwei". For example, in the industry to promote the long-term "control board to raise more than" this goal, up to now there have been some "over" bias. According to statistics, currently has an annual production capacity of hot-rolled sheet and rolling over 200,000,000 tons, with an annual production capacity of plate 80,000,000 tons, has excess production capacity, market pressure. The sharp fall in steel prices, the price of hot-rolled plates at one time a substantial volume "upside down" in low value-added steel.
China Steel Association, said Qi Xiangdong, the relevant person in charge, the implementation of the national expansion of domestic demand, promote the development of the macro-policy, the most direct benefit of the industry is one of the iron and steel industry. Iron and steel industry through restructuring and optimization of the structure, improve the product mix and market expansion of effective demand, is no longer blind expansion of production capacity, in order to adhere to the pin Ding Chan, at the same time determined to upstream and downstream industry chain to the relationship between the price reasonable adjustments to establish a stable The pricing mechanism for marketing.
State Council Development Research Center of the Ministry of Economic Affairs industry experts also believe that Zhang Liqun, iron and steel industry in the future of the "point" is the only industry in upgrading and improving the quality.
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